Miami Real Estate Market 2025–2026 and What I’m Seeing and What’s Next
Hi friends,
If you’ve been watching Miami’s real estate scene, you already know it’s been an exciting few years — record-setting, actually. But as the headlines start to shift, many people are asking me the same questions:
"Are prices holding? Are buyers still coming? And is the market slowing down or just changing shape?"
Here’s my personal take on what’s happening — and what to expect in 2026.
The Strongest Markets Right Now
Miami’s luxury market continues to outperform almost every other major city. The combination of lifestyle, safety, tax benefits, top schools, and year-round sunshine keeps both domestic and international buyers coming.
This year, Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, and Miami Beach have been the clear front-runners:
- Coconut Grove homes ↑ 7%
- Miami Beach homes ↑ 6%
- Bal Harbour & Grove condos ↑ 5%
Even more remarkable:
The number of $10M+ transactions rose 270% year-over-year. Prices per square foot held steady (already at record highs), but that volume tells the story — Miami continues to attract the world’s wealthiest buyers.
Inventory Is Up — But the Details Matter
Yes, inventory has increased in some neighborhoods — but not all listings are equal.
Coconut Grove and Brickell saw inventory rise by 20–38%, while Downtown and Edgewater jumped as much as 60%.
The key? Much of that is older, less desirable, or overpriced product. The well-positioned homes still move fast — sometimes faster than last year.
Is the Market Going Down?
No — the market isn’t falling. It’s stabilizing.
Across most neighborhoods, prices are still rising 3–12% year over year.
The price reductions you see online are typically overreaching sellers correcting unrealistic 2023 expectations. When priced and presented right, homes are trading strong.
Miami isn’t correcting — it’s calibrating.
Luxury Rentals: Still Strong but Evolving
Brickell, Coconut Grove, and Miami Beach continue to dominate Miami’s rental market with 3–5% annual increases.
Some high-end buildings have seen modest rent drops — Icon Brickell, SLS Lux, Park Grove, Continuum — but those are tied to aging amenities or temporary conditions, not market weakness.
The reality? Newer, well-maintained properties are thriving.
Buyer or Seller Market? It Depends.
- Luxury ($3M+): Seller’s market — limited supply, strong demand.
- Mid-range ($1M–$3M): Balanced but fast-moving.
- Older condos: Buyer’s market — heavy inventory, price flexibility.
- The “buyer’s market” narrative is misleading; there’s more inventory, not more quality.
Is Miami Overpriced?
“Overpriced” is relative. Miami’s new demographic — high-earning relocations who are here to stay — can support current values.
Price per sqft rose another 3–12% in 2024, with continued modest growth expected in 2025.
The only truly overpriced properties? Aging condos with big assessments or unrealistic sellers ignoring comps.
Houses vs. Condos: The Smarter Investment
- Over the past five years, luxury houses have outperformed condos in appreciation and stability.
- Houses in Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, and Miami Beach have often doubled in value.
- Condos in prime areas (South of Fifth, Park Grove) remain strong but more volatile.
Bottom line: Newer homes in primary neighborhoods have been the clear winners.
The 2026 Outlook: Confident and Balanced
I’m optimistic about 2026. I see:
- Continued buyer demand from the U.S. and abroad.
- Limited ultra-luxury supply, especially waterfront estates.
- Potential interest rate cuts (0.5%) later in the year to re-energize the $3M–$5M market.
- Rising focus on sustainability and climate resilience.
And here’s what’s crucial to understand:
Miami’s condo market is split.
Over 80% of existing condo inventory is 30 years old or older — that’s the segment dealing with rising assessments, insurance costs, and aging infrastructure.
That’s why many people wrongly assume “the condo market is down.” They’re looking at the older buildings and assuming they represent the whole story.
But the newer generation of luxury condos — those with exceptional amenities, strong reserves, and modern design — are performing beautifully.
They’re attracting both end-users and investors who value quality, convenience, and the Miami lifestyle.
The takeaway?
Miami’s condo market isn’t weak — it’s bifurcated. The old inventory is weighing down the averages, while the new developments are setting new standards.
Final Thoughts
Miami remains one of the most desirable and resilient real estate markets in the world.
The key now is understanding the nuances — which areas are evolving, which properties hold lasting value, and where the data doesn’t tell the whole story.
For my clients, I’m focused on quality, location, and long-term appreciation.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in now or in the near future, now’s the time to position yourself — and I’d love to help you do it strategically. Just call or text me at 305-781-4320 or reach out via email today at [email protected] .
Warmly,
Sara Mullis
